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welcome to the skeptic zone the podcast

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from Australia for science and reason

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[Music]

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[Applause]

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[Music]

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yes it's the skeptic zone podcast

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episode number 595 for the 8th of March

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2020

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know Richard Saunders coming to you this

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week from Sydney Australia a bit wet but

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drizzly a few showers at the moment so I

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better stay indoors coming up on this

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week's show a report from surf coast

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summer skeptic camp 8 in Ali's Inlet

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Victoria which I attended last week you

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would have heard a little bit about that

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on the last show this week a full report

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about the fun of the day including

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including a test of the premium wine

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cart now this little device about the

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size of a credit card made out of metal

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is claimed to improve the taste of wine

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how how by rubbing the card on the

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outside of the wine glass that's if the

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wine has already been poured if the wine

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has not been poured you simply hold the

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wine card on the outside of the glass as

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you're pouring the wine in sounds too

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good to be true we put it to the test

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well we have a fun test of the premium

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wine card can i chat to my good friend

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steve roberts and one of the organizers

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Don Hyde following that it's Maenads

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spooky action this week may not reports

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from the Australian skeptics dinner

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meeting here in New South Wales in

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Sydney where he interviews dr. Michael

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Mann now dr. Mann is a climatologist and

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geophysicist and currently the director

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of the Earth Science Center at

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Pennsylvania State University and he

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came along to give a talk about their

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well climate change a very interesting

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interview with dr. Mann and a chat with

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Tim Mendham a variant in Mendham who was

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there on the night and it's good to see

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Tim up and about after his recent bout

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of appendicitis

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and I'm looking forward to more book of

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Tim Tims gonna be doing some more

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recording soon now this is

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one this is part one and next week on

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part two may not chat to the one and

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only dick Smith one of the founders of

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Australian skeptics the next segment is

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logical fallacies our new continuing

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segment with Michelle because MA

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this week Michelle looks at the appeal

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the popularity and I think this segment

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is becoming very popular indeed and

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around off the show it's the raw skeptic

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report with Haile Robinson and what a

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timely report it is Heidi interviews dr.

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sue page who is the past president of

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the rural doctors Association of

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Australia and current board member of

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the future health leaders and someone

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very knowledgeable in matters such as

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vaccinations and the current coronavirus

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situation dr. page gives Heidi some good

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advice about dealing with the current

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coronavirus what you should do what you

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shouldn't do what might happen what

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probably won't happen again a very

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timely update including some very good

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links that you should follow including

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including smart traveler dot gov dot a

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you this is the website by the

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Australian government for people wishing

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to travel overseas with all sorts of

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very good information and that's a site

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worth keeping your eye on and speaking

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of the coronavirus it came to my

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attention the other day that the people

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over at homeopathy plus have published

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an article more or less recommending a

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certain type of homeopathic magic to

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help fight a corona virus oh good advice

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indeed homeopathy plus we might look at

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that a bit more in depth next week this

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is the same outfit that was taken to

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court a few years ago about their

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publication of information suggesting

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that their magic sugar water could help

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prevent whooping cough by way of

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vaccinations well that's enough for me

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at the moment it's time for me to run

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downstairs and see if I have the

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ingredients to make up some yummy

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Japanese pancakes mmm while I do that I

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hope you enjoy the skeptic zone

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[Music]

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the Surf Coast summer skeptic 1/8 was

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held on Saturday the 29th of February at

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a Lee's Inlet community center in

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Victoria the day included talks by Tina

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Harrigan mal Vickers Ross Finlay Joanne

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Benna mu dr. Scott Power and many more I

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was very grateful to be flown down just

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for the event

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well after weeks and weeks of

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anticipation we're actually here at

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aireys inlet for skeptic amp

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Surf Coast summer skeptic cam ape the

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room is filling up with skeptics the

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talks will beginning soon and it's gonna

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be an interesting day because we have a

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test today we're running a test of the

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premium wine card links in this week's

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show notes to this interesting device so

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I'm standing between two trestle tables

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both tables are filled up with all sorts

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of different wine cups and glasses and

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things with a little bit of red wine at

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the moment in each one on table a I walk

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over the table B and there's the equal

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number of cups with a bit of red wine

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now I don't know if the wine is the same

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wine in all the cups on table a and

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table B I don't know if table a is

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treated the wine on table a has been

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treated with the premium wine card which

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improves the taste of wine or table

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beers being treated or nothing's been

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treated it's in this respect to me it's

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completely blind people will be tasting

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the wine when from anyone from be coming

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over to me and I'll be keeping the

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results and at the end of the day we'll

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see whether the wines treated with a

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premium wine card again I have no idea

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which wines they might be will taste

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better than the wines not treated with

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the premium wine card or if people can

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tell the difference at all Steve Roberts

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is the wine master today helping me with

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the test how's it lookin Stephen

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good point so we bought some incredibly

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cheap wine some very nice wine and again

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I have no idea looking at now you know

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but I have no idea which one is which

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well the cheap wine corrodes the glasses

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as well as our insides I think it could

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be yeah like we put tiny portions out of

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that 20 Mille in different shaped

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glasses on a table and a B tape yeah and

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you can find the same glass at each

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table and what people do is to try while

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and try the other and tell them tell us

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which one they like better or are they

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the same yeah these being skeptic so

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looking they're the same actually they

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will not be the same there's not they

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might or may not well I don't know yeah

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no idea as I was saying to the audience

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those glasses might have good wine and

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that's cheap wine or that's the same

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wine I have no I got my a lot of it may

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not have been used or gather some

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statistics and that's during the break

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after the first talk and then I'll

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scuttle away washed the glasses or serve

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them all again it's looking good it's

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looking good or if they're getting miss

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half your tours really good as the day

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progressed people came to the back of

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the room where I was seated and took

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part in testing the two samples of wine

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most people headed straight for Table A

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had a drink walked over a table B and

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another drink and then reported to me

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the results either table a wine tasted

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better than table B in their opinion

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table B wine tasted better than table a

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in their opinion or they couldn't tell

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the difference I thought the wine tasted

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just the same during the day we had

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three rounds of wine tasting plus a

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round of tap water tasting now what

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Steve Roberts was doing in a kitchen

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around the corner where nobody could see

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was he was pouring out little amounts of

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wine into the glasses and as per the

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premium wine card instructions he was

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rubbing the card on the side of each

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glass that was to be treated again

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during each round we didn't know with

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our table a or table B was treated and

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we didn't know if the same wine was even

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being used in samples a and B I can tell

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you that we had two types of wine

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very cheap wine roughly two dollars

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fifty a bottle and more expensive wine

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at something like $10 a bottle while

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that was going on I had a word to one of

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the organizers Don Hyatt

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well it's halfway through the day

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skeptic camp has been going really good

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so far some interesting talks on

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mathematics and medicine stuff and we've

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got Don hide here one of the organizers

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Don how's it going do you think I think

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it's going very well we've had a bumper

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crew and Michelle has actually done a

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wonderful job in terms of advertising

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the the events the new reporter Michelle

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of course absolutely and we appreciate

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the support as ever from the skeptics I

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thank you yeah yes so one of the

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interesting things is that I'm not

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actually a jalan resident in fact

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there's only about one or two jalan

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residents here so what we found in the

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past is that I have to travel two hours

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to get here Richard which is a long way

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it'd be great to have a local resident

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actually either on the Working Committee

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or convening the event because this is a

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Geelong event was started by McVeigh ERG

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eight years ago was run by him for the

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first three years and we also had Zola

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and James and unfortunately none of

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those can continue on in that position

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so I'm sort of in caretaker mode for

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Ryan right so you're interested in

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somebody from the Geelong area taking an

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interest in this so if there's anyone

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within your large viewing audience if

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they are interested in that if they

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could just contact us sceptic groups of

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Victoria its G of Vic yeah at gmail.com

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let me know and we'll certainly talk to

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them with a view to putting them on the

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working group excellent folks there'll

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be a link in this week's show notes and

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if this is anything to go by it's a

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really worthwhile and fun day Thank You

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Don that's a great pleasure and terrific

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to see you down here to Richard more

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wine-tasting is the afternoon progress

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now you might be interested to know

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about this premium wine card they'll be

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linked in this week's show notes so you

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can check it out for yourself and see

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the video where this thing is

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demonstrated which is quite something I

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promise you but on the page itself and

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these cards sell for 65 dollars a pop

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they're about the size of a credit card

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they're metallic it says the technology

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the premium wine card contains an

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embedded set of precise frequencies that

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produce long-lasting natural resonance

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the resonance can be transferred to the

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wine through the wine glass how does a

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premium wine card work the resonance of

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the premium wine card has a positive

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effect on the tannins and the wine

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causing them to quickly soften as if the

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wine had been further aged for a number

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of years you may notice that the wine

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treated with the card has a fruity aroma

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and a smooth richer flavor with the

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00:12:21,050 --> 00:12:16,260
mellower softer finish that is typical

275
00:12:22,940 --> 00:12:21,060
of a premium salad wine enjoy the

276
00:12:24,560 --> 00:12:22,950
premium wine card has been on the radar

277
00:12:27,080 --> 00:12:24,570
of Australian sceptics for about five

278
00:12:28,970 --> 00:12:27,090
years and and about five years ago we

279
00:12:32,150 --> 00:12:28,980
did an informal test at skeptics in the

280
00:12:34,040 --> 00:12:32,160
pub and we had a lot of fun doing that

281
00:12:39,079 --> 00:12:34,050
this test was somewhat more formal and

282
00:12:41,180 --> 00:12:39,089
it will be written up at the end of the

283
00:12:42,250 --> 00:12:41,190
day we were ready to announce the

284
00:12:45,500 --> 00:12:42,260
results

285
00:12:47,840 --> 00:12:45,510
CVM wine cart which we have here and you

286
00:12:49,730 --> 00:12:47,850
get beautiful packaging for with it you

287
00:12:51,970 --> 00:12:49,740
get a nice box and all that that's it

288
00:12:54,050 --> 00:12:51,980
it's metal it's got holes in it

289
00:13:02,630 --> 00:12:54,060
$65 so you meant to pop it on the wine

290
00:13:05,510 --> 00:13:02,640
glass and the first test out of 17

291
00:13:08,120 --> 00:13:05,520
people 8 can tell the difference to sort

292
00:13:11,510 --> 00:13:08,130
the charged wine was better than seven

293
00:13:13,790 --> 00:13:11,520
thought it was worse actually this one

294
00:13:16,070 --> 00:13:13,800
is $15 wine that you were drinking on

295
00:13:19,730 --> 00:13:16,080
the first two tests and and by that I

296
00:13:23,329 --> 00:13:19,740
mean not $15 a bottle but $15 for six

297
00:13:25,310 --> 00:13:23,339
bottles so if you can make it this and

298
00:13:29,600 --> 00:13:25,320
that it's really quite a feat you know

299
00:13:31,700 --> 00:13:29,610
the Aldi's lowest set test to actually

300
00:13:33,770 --> 00:13:31,710
six six thought it was better than the

301
00:13:35,300 --> 00:13:33,780
three thought it was worse than four

302
00:13:36,710 --> 00:13:35,310
couldn't tell it was actually a bit of a

303
00:13:38,270 --> 00:13:36,720
result the other way but when you had

304
00:13:40,460 --> 00:13:38,280
the two together it was the same wine

305
00:13:43,070 --> 00:13:40,470
the two tests it comes out slightly

306
00:13:45,020 --> 00:13:43,080
negative for the card and then the test

307
00:13:47,450 --> 00:13:45,030
three was a better wine

308
00:13:49,370 --> 00:13:47,460
a decent one that was six seven and

309
00:13:51,200 --> 00:13:49,380
seven you know six preferred it's

310
00:13:53,900 --> 00:13:51,210
everything it was worse than seven

311
00:13:55,670 --> 00:13:53,910
didn't know which is pretty flat I'm

312
00:13:57,080 --> 00:13:55,680
actually amazed I mean you're skeptics

313
00:14:00,440 --> 00:13:57,090
yeah it should be like twenty one don't

314
00:14:02,510 --> 00:14:00,450
know and zero and zero and with water

315
00:14:04,370 --> 00:14:02,520
it's the same one preferred one didn't

316
00:14:06,620 --> 00:14:04,380
like it and six didn't know so the

317
00:14:08,840 --> 00:14:06,630
results come out completely flat

318
00:14:10,430 --> 00:14:08,850
completely flat and according to the

319
00:14:14,720 --> 00:14:10,440
premium wine cards

320
00:14:16,970 --> 00:14:14,730
own tests seven out of eight in a blind

321
00:14:19,880 --> 00:14:16,980
test chose the wine treated with the

322
00:14:21,290 --> 00:14:19,890
premium wine capital so this was

323
00:14:23,450 --> 00:14:21,300
actually was a double-blind test that I

324
00:14:25,940 --> 00:14:23,460
knew and only I knew until now which

325
00:14:27,350 --> 00:14:25,950
wine was which so has actually done

326
00:14:29,090 --> 00:14:27,360
properly doubled wine it was great fun

327
00:14:32,600 --> 00:14:29,100
devising it and have a great fun washing

328
00:14:34,280 --> 00:14:32,610
a hundred and fifty wine glasses thank

329
00:14:36,890 --> 00:14:34,290
you everybody who took part and had a

330
00:14:39,140 --> 00:14:36,900
taste for us this will be written up and

331
00:14:41,660 --> 00:14:39,150
published in the the skeptic Journal and

332
00:14:44,510 --> 00:14:41,670
will probably hopefully help to further

333
00:14:47,530 --> 00:14:44,520
our cause and maybe do something about

334
00:14:53,609 --> 00:14:47,540
this company so thank you very much

335
00:14:57,100 --> 00:14:53,619
[Applause]

336
00:15:00,189 --> 00:14:57,110
to recap those results we had four

337
00:15:04,239 --> 00:15:00,199
rounds round one the wine was the very

338
00:15:06,220 --> 00:15:04,249
cheap wine and the wine on table a all

339
00:15:08,199 --> 00:15:06,230
the wine on table a was treated with the

340
00:15:09,549 --> 00:15:08,209
wine card and all the wine on table B

341
00:15:12,850 --> 00:15:09,559
was poured straight from the bottle

342
00:15:15,189 --> 00:15:12,860
without being treated two people thought

343
00:15:17,979 --> 00:15:15,199
that the wine card treated wine tasted

344
00:15:19,780 --> 00:15:17,989
better seven people thought the

345
00:15:21,069 --> 00:15:19,790
untreated wine tasted better and

346
00:15:23,259 --> 00:15:21,079
remember they didn't have a clue which

347
00:15:25,509 --> 00:15:23,269
was which and eight people thought they

348
00:15:29,470 --> 00:15:25,519
tasted just the same so that's a very

349
00:15:32,439 --> 00:15:29,480
flat result favoring the untreated wine

350
00:15:34,660 --> 00:15:32,449
round two was also the cheap wine six

351
00:15:37,900 --> 00:15:34,670
people this time thought the wine card

352
00:15:39,879 --> 00:15:37,910
wine tasted better three people thought

353
00:15:41,579 --> 00:15:39,889
the untreated wine tasted better and

354
00:15:45,519 --> 00:15:41,589
four people couldn't tell the difference

355
00:15:47,499 --> 00:15:45,529
again hardly statistically amazing

356
00:15:50,169 --> 00:15:47,509
results round three was the more

357
00:15:52,449 --> 00:15:50,179
expensive wine and this was very flat

358
00:15:55,539 --> 00:15:52,459
along the board six people thought the

359
00:15:57,460 --> 00:15:55,549
treated wine tasted better seven people

360
00:15:58,989 --> 00:15:57,470
thought the untreated wine tasted better

361
00:16:01,210 --> 00:15:58,999
and seven people couldn't tell the

362
00:16:03,939 --> 00:16:01,220
difference and finally some people tried

363
00:16:06,119 --> 00:16:03,949
some water the water treated with wine

364
00:16:09,329 --> 00:16:06,129
card scored one point the water

365
00:16:13,150 --> 00:16:09,339
untreated scored a point but six people

366
00:16:15,789 --> 00:16:13,160
couldn't tell the difference this whole

367
00:16:18,249 --> 00:16:15,799
idea of embedded frequencies was also

368
00:16:21,249 --> 00:16:18,259
used many years ago to sell the Power

369
00:16:24,249 --> 00:16:21,259
Balance and that sort of range of

370
00:16:26,949 --> 00:16:24,259
plastic wristbands now riding in

371
00:16:30,519 --> 00:16:26,959
science-based medicine org dr. Harriet

372
00:16:33,280 --> 00:16:30,529
hall the skeptic says embedded

373
00:16:36,489 --> 00:16:33,290
frequencies are bogus they usually use

374
00:16:39,179 --> 00:16:36,499
the word frequency in isolation but the

375
00:16:42,460 --> 00:16:39,189
word is meaningless unless you specify

376
00:16:44,409 --> 00:16:42,470
frequencies of what frequency is defined

377
00:16:47,470 --> 00:16:44,419
as the number of occurrences of a

378
00:16:50,189 --> 00:16:47,480
repeating event per time unit and you

379
00:16:53,229 --> 00:16:50,199
have to specify what event is repeating

380
00:16:55,509 --> 00:16:53,239
revolutions per minute rpm heart beats

381
00:16:58,900 --> 00:16:55,519
per minute waves of light or sound

382
00:17:01,539 --> 00:16:58,910
cycles per second Hertz is a unit of

383
00:17:04,000 --> 00:17:01,549
frequency defined as one cycle per

384
00:17:06,790 --> 00:17:04,010
second you can't in

385
00:17:08,260 --> 00:17:06,800
bed a frequency you might be able to

386
00:17:12,220 --> 00:17:08,270
embed something that would produce

387
00:17:14,439 --> 00:17:12,230
vibrations or electromagnetic waves with

388
00:17:17,380 --> 00:17:14,449
the frequency but it would require a

389
00:17:21,120 --> 00:17:17,390
power source if a product contains a

390
00:17:25,569 --> 00:17:21,130
frequency generator so what conclusion

391
00:17:27,880 --> 00:17:25,579
embedded frequencies are bogus and as

392
00:17:30,610 --> 00:17:27,890
part of the research on this premium

393
00:17:32,920 --> 00:17:30,620
wine card I have in my possession some

394
00:17:35,740 --> 00:17:32,930
videos that they themselves shot which

395
00:17:38,680 --> 00:17:35,750
are very telling indeed and maybe they

396
00:17:40,780 --> 00:17:38,690
will make part of a future report in the

397
00:17:48,100 --> 00:17:40,790
pages of the skeptic the journal from

398
00:17:50,080 --> 00:17:48,110
Australian skeptics a big thank you to

399
00:17:52,090 --> 00:17:50,090
everybody involved in putting certh

400
00:17:55,510 --> 00:17:52,100
coasters I'm a skeptic amp eight

401
00:17:57,610 --> 00:17:55,520
together it was a terrific day good to

402
00:18:01,480 --> 00:17:57,620
be part of it and then we had a lot of

403
00:18:04,330 --> 00:18:01,490
fun conducting the wine card tests and

404
00:18:06,580 --> 00:18:04,340
the days surrounding south coast I'm a

405
00:18:09,850 --> 00:18:06,590
skeptic Emperor joy - with the big

406
00:18:12,310 --> 00:18:09,860
thanks to Michelle big asthma who kindly

407
00:18:15,190 --> 00:18:12,320
put us up in the area and Steve Roberts

408
00:18:27,000 --> 00:18:15,200
for helping out on the day

409
00:18:36,360 --> 00:18:31,430
Tajima ki te te te ropu da cos TOA

410
00:18:42,020 --> 00:18:36,370
austoria kala Saskia chicas on to you

411
00:18:45,690 --> 00:18:42,030
kaga keto bran Reno Porto custodes a Goa

412
00:18:51,030 --> 00:18:45,700
ceccacci de su arakata bono he taught

413
00:18:55,080 --> 00:18:51,040
cska Cano Porto cast OA Johanna Cooney

414
00:19:01,980 --> 00:18:55,090
nokotta body show Cosima's dabra dabra

415
00:19:06,960 --> 00:19:01,990
dabra skeptics on TV she rabbit a homo

416
00:19:11,310 --> 00:19:06,970
Pacino Hamid any screw Rosarito origami

417
00:19:12,030 --> 00:19:11,320
no Pegasus a toy you see personal re

418
00:19:16,910 --> 00:19:12,040
puta

419
00:19:22,410 --> 00:19:16,920
Oh chief esta rich artisan desuno

420
00:19:25,750 --> 00:19:22,420
original know origami no posto down Rho

421
00:19:33,909 --> 00:19:25,760
dou suru koto got Hakeem ass

422
00:19:44,330 --> 00:19:39,110
here's Maynard spooky action at the

423
00:19:46,310 --> 00:19:44,340
distance welcome to a very special

424
00:19:47,990 --> 00:19:46,320
skeptics dinner tonight covering for the

425
00:19:49,820 --> 00:19:48,000
skeptics shown he's Maynard people are

426
00:19:51,230 --> 00:19:49,830
saying too may not hey I guess you'll be

427
00:19:52,639 --> 00:19:51,240
going to mighty great or not I mean no

428
00:19:54,500 --> 00:19:52,649
I'm going to watch a few PowerPoint

429
00:19:56,060 --> 00:19:54,510
display graphs from a climatologist I

430
00:19:57,590 --> 00:19:56,070
know how difficult a good time when

431
00:19:59,000 --> 00:19:57,600
there's only a block away for me there's

432
00:20:01,190 --> 00:19:59,010
half-naked people I'm watching a

433
00:20:03,649 --> 00:20:01,200
PowerPoint display and listening to mr.

434
00:20:05,269 --> 00:20:03,659
Michael Mann that's right Michael Eman

435
00:20:07,220 --> 00:20:05,279
is the guest tonight and I've just been

436
00:20:09,560 --> 00:20:07,230
looking at his academic record this guy

437
00:20:13,250 --> 00:20:09,570
probably didn't go out for about 11

438
00:20:14,990 --> 00:20:13,260
years I'd say between 1989 and yeah he

439
00:20:17,330 --> 00:20:15,000
just didn't go out anyway he was doing

440
00:20:20,060 --> 00:20:17,340
lots and lots of physics degrees

441
00:20:22,159 --> 00:20:20,070
looks like majored in philosophy geology

442
00:20:25,639 --> 00:20:22,169
geophysics and of course he's best known

443
00:20:28,639 --> 00:20:25,649
as being the lead author on the 3rd IPCC

444
00:20:30,529 --> 00:20:28,649
third assessment report on how the

445
00:20:31,940 --> 00:20:30,539
planets doomed so I'm gonna hopefully

446
00:20:33,680 --> 00:20:31,950
talk to him about how we may be not

447
00:20:35,120 --> 00:20:33,690
doomed and I'm gonna be asking him and

448
00:20:36,379 --> 00:20:35,130
all that let's get fix here tonight at

449
00:20:37,730 --> 00:20:36,389
the skeptics dinner

450
00:20:39,620 --> 00:20:37,740
I'll see if anyone's flicking butter

451
00:20:40,970 --> 00:20:39,630
around - oh God they'll be in trouble if

452
00:20:43,909 --> 00:20:40,980
they do flick butter tonight they sure

453
00:20:46,490 --> 00:20:43,919
well I'll be asking him why people are

454
00:20:48,680 --> 00:20:46,500
so reluctant to accept the climate

455
00:20:50,570 --> 00:20:48,690
change data and why they don't want to

456
00:20:52,340 --> 00:20:50,580
is it just they don't like bad news is

457
00:20:54,019 --> 00:20:52,350
it because they've got vested interests

458
00:20:56,180 --> 00:20:54,029
because I just like things to remain the

459
00:20:58,129 --> 00:20:56,190
same all that lots of climate change fun

460
00:21:01,970 --> 00:20:58,139
on this Sydney gay lesbian Mardi Gras

461
00:21:03,919 --> 00:21:01,980
night look I'm very lucky to be talking

462
00:21:05,330 --> 00:21:03,929
with that dr. Michael Mann it's a great

463
00:21:06,799 --> 00:21:05,340
pleasure to meet you sir I think you're

464
00:21:08,299 --> 00:21:06,809
great to be with you look I've got so

465
00:21:09,799 --> 00:21:08,309
many questions but the first I was just

466
00:21:11,419 --> 00:21:09,809
looking at your record there and you

467
00:21:13,310 --> 00:21:11,429
probably didn't go anywhere go out of

468
00:21:15,350 --> 00:21:13,320
his social for about 12 years at

469
00:21:17,539 --> 00:21:15,360
California Berkeley you are studying up

470
00:21:20,509 --> 00:21:17,549
a storm there and doing so many things

471
00:21:22,039 --> 00:21:20,519
oh you know college life is always busy

472
00:21:23,629 --> 00:21:22,049
and you find time for the things that

473
00:21:25,940 --> 00:21:23,639
are important but yeah I double majored

474
00:21:27,919 --> 00:21:25,950
in applied math and physics UC Berkeley

475
00:21:30,050 --> 00:21:27,929
and started scientific research while I

476
00:21:31,970 --> 00:21:30,060
was an undergraduate there and when

477
00:21:34,160 --> 00:21:31,980
to graduate school in physics at Yale

478
00:21:37,550 --> 00:21:34,170
University and eventually ended up in

479
00:21:39,740 --> 00:21:37,560
the field of climate climate science you

480
00:21:41,390 --> 00:21:39,750
obviously very well-educated is there a

481
00:21:43,760 --> 00:21:41,400
reason you chose this field you didn't

482
00:21:46,550 --> 00:21:43,770
go into pharmacy or medicine or or even

483
00:21:48,800 --> 00:21:46,560
the arts and become a lobbyist yeah you

484
00:21:53,480 --> 00:21:48,810
know it's yeah I think these things are

485
00:21:56,540 --> 00:21:53,490
often just an accident of one's you know

486
00:21:59,540 --> 00:21:56,550
just the decisions one happens to make I

487
00:22:01,070 --> 00:21:59,550
like I said I double majored in applied

488
00:22:03,380 --> 00:22:01,080
math and physics went out to graduate

489
00:22:05,510 --> 00:22:03,390
school in theoretical physics at Yale

490
00:22:08,030 --> 00:22:05,520
University and after a couple years

491
00:22:11,450 --> 00:22:08,040
after passing all my exams I realized I

492
00:22:13,790 --> 00:22:11,460
wasn't you know I I wasn't working on a

493
00:22:16,250 --> 00:22:13,800
problem that really excited me and so I

494
00:22:18,230 --> 00:22:16,260
opened up the catalog at Yale University

495
00:22:20,900 --> 00:22:18,240
that the catalog of problems at the

496
00:22:23,930 --> 00:22:20,910
university has essentially essentially I

497
00:22:25,640 --> 00:22:23,940
opened up the catalog of science and

498
00:22:27,650 --> 00:22:25,650
applied science and started looking

499
00:22:29,960 --> 00:22:27,660
through it to see what other research

500
00:22:32,570 --> 00:22:29,970
projects were going on in the university

501
00:22:35,540 --> 00:22:32,580
one of their faculty were working on

502
00:22:37,160 --> 00:22:35,550
problems that seemed interesting and

503
00:22:39,380 --> 00:22:37,170
they made use of the math and the

504
00:22:41,630 --> 00:22:39,390
physics that I had you know learned and

505
00:22:44,150 --> 00:22:41,640
and I saw there was a professor in the

506
00:22:46,700 --> 00:22:44,160
department of geology and geophysics who

507
00:22:48,800 --> 00:22:46,710
was using physics and math to model

508
00:22:50,810 --> 00:22:48,810
Earth's climate system and that sounded

509
00:22:53,510 --> 00:22:50,820
very interesting to me went to talk with

510
00:22:55,760 --> 00:22:53,520
him the rest is history I ended up going

511
00:22:57,350 --> 00:22:55,770
in that direction and with the modeling

512
00:22:59,510 --> 00:22:57,360
too there's a lot of lot of people argue

513
00:23:00,710 --> 00:22:59,520
about the noisy data that has to get

514
00:23:03,170 --> 00:23:00,720
thrown out and whether it should be

515
00:23:05,660 --> 00:23:03,180
thrown out how do you work that out as

516
00:23:06,830 --> 00:23:05,670
the layman it's like you keep away from

517
00:23:08,780 --> 00:23:06,840
concrete buildings where the

518
00:23:11,840 --> 00:23:08,790
measurements are how do you do the noisy

519
00:23:14,660 --> 00:23:11,850
data from the good data yeah so you know

520
00:23:16,760 --> 00:23:14,670
the observational record thermometer

521
00:23:19,670 --> 00:23:16,770
measurements around the world there are

522
00:23:21,200 --> 00:23:19,680
teams there are probably hundreds of

523
00:23:23,600 --> 00:23:21,210
scientists now who spend their whole

524
00:23:25,940 --> 00:23:23,610
lives working on this exact problem and

525
00:23:28,610 --> 00:23:25,950
thinking about every possible nuance

526
00:23:31,280 --> 00:23:28,620
what sort of corrections need to be made

527
00:23:33,040 --> 00:23:31,290
if a thermometer was moved at some point

528
00:23:37,030 --> 00:23:33,050
from one location to another

529
00:23:40,480 --> 00:23:37,040
how you deal with the effect of changing

530
00:23:42,610 --> 00:23:40,490
bucket measurements ocean temperatures

531
00:23:45,100 --> 00:23:42,620
made with buckets they were wood buckets

532
00:23:46,300 --> 00:23:45,110
and they change over to metal buckets so

533
00:23:49,870 --> 00:23:46,310
you have to account for the different

534
00:23:52,150 --> 00:23:49,880
heat capacities and so there is and then

535
00:23:55,690 --> 00:23:52,160
sort of urban heat island effects in a

536
00:23:58,090 --> 00:23:55,700
place here like Sydney is warmed up you

537
00:24:00,160 --> 00:23:58,100
know in part you know more than the

538
00:24:01,720 --> 00:24:00,170
surrounding countryside because of the

539
00:24:04,810 --> 00:24:01,730
the concrete and the absorptive

540
00:24:06,910 --> 00:24:04,820
properties of sort of the urban

541
00:24:08,740 --> 00:24:06,920
landscape and so you have to correct for

542
00:24:11,920 --> 00:24:08,750
those things so there are scientists who

543
00:24:14,530 --> 00:24:11,930
will do their entire PhD on one aspect

544
00:24:16,210 --> 00:24:14,540
of one of those problems and and it's

545
00:24:17,620 --> 00:24:16,220
only because of that because you do have

546
00:24:20,410 --> 00:24:17,630
these teams of scientists using

547
00:24:22,570 --> 00:24:20,420
different approaches you know coming at

548
00:24:24,130 --> 00:24:22,580
the problem from different directions

549
00:24:26,530 --> 00:24:24,140
and in my presentation tonight I'll be

550
00:24:29,230 --> 00:24:26,540
talking a little bit about that how

551
00:24:31,360 --> 00:24:29,240
we're able to converge with a remarkably

552
00:24:33,100 --> 00:24:31,370
precise picture of how Earth's

553
00:24:36,130 --> 00:24:33,110
temperature has changed over the past

554
00:24:38,200 --> 00:24:36,140
century and a half and are you are you

555
00:24:39,700 --> 00:24:38,210
happy with the way things might be going

556
00:24:41,110 --> 00:24:39,710
in the future obviously now people are a

557
00:24:42,490 --> 00:24:41,120
bit slow to pick up on the information

558
00:24:44,740 --> 00:24:42,500
you'll give you them that must be very

559
00:24:46,600 --> 00:24:44,750
frustrating do you ever I mean you must

560
00:24:49,390 --> 00:24:46,610
yell at the mirror a lot at home so you

561
00:24:53,080 --> 00:24:49,400
don't do it at lectures well you know I

562
00:24:55,960 --> 00:24:53,090
won't describe the you know the

563
00:24:59,860 --> 00:24:55,970
frustrations that we you know that one

564
00:25:02,110 --> 00:24:59,870
has at times one can imagine that it can

565
00:25:04,690 --> 00:25:02,120
be frustrating to be trying to

566
00:25:07,060 --> 00:25:04,700
communicate you know as as a scientist

567
00:25:09,760 --> 00:25:07,070
who enjoys communicating science to the

568
00:25:11,950 --> 00:25:09,770
public and to be trying to do that and

569
00:25:14,140 --> 00:25:11,960
to get all this pushback from people are

570
00:25:16,870 --> 00:25:14,150
trying to discredit you my good friend

571
00:25:18,730 --> 00:25:16,880
dr. Carl I know is very involved in

572
00:25:21,070 --> 00:25:18,740
those efforts here in Australia to

573
00:25:23,080 --> 00:25:21,080
educate the public about issues like

574
00:25:25,360 --> 00:25:23,090
climate change and I see some of the

575
00:25:26,760 --> 00:25:25,370
interactions he has online with climate

576
00:25:28,020 --> 00:25:26,770
contrarians and it takes

577
00:25:30,270 --> 00:25:28,030
yeah you know one of the things people

578
00:25:32,100 --> 00:25:30,280
seem to think that you're invested in

579
00:25:34,230 --> 00:25:32,110
there being climate change because

580
00:25:36,240 --> 00:25:34,240
you'll get research grants out of it and

581
00:25:39,690 --> 00:25:36,250
you'll be paid more money or something

582
00:25:41,760 --> 00:25:39,700
something like that right it's it's it's

583
00:25:43,140 --> 00:25:41,770
sort of a silly argument and it you know

584
00:25:45,360 --> 00:25:43,150
to some extent it's what I guess

585
00:25:47,910 --> 00:25:45,370
psychologists call projection which is

586
00:25:49,530 --> 00:25:47,920
to say that many of those who are making

587
00:25:51,750 --> 00:25:49,540
that argument are actually working for

588
00:25:53,700 --> 00:25:51,760
the fossil fuel industry and and are

589
00:25:56,100 --> 00:25:53,710
truly getting paid a lot of money to

590
00:25:58,380 --> 00:25:56,110
discredit the science where scientists

591
00:26:00,120 --> 00:25:58,390
like myself our grant money doesn't go

592
00:26:02,070 --> 00:26:00,130
to our pockets it goes to fund our

593
00:26:04,160 --> 00:26:02,080
research programs our graduate students

594
00:26:07,260 --> 00:26:04,170
etc and so there's this misconception

595
00:26:09,900 --> 00:26:07,270
about you know what it is first of all

596
00:26:12,270 --> 00:26:09,910
that motivates scientists another sort

597
00:26:14,070 --> 00:26:12,280
of part of that is this idea that we're

598
00:26:17,250 --> 00:26:14,080
all agreeing with each other and

599
00:26:19,440 --> 00:26:17,260
promoting this myth of climate change to

600
00:26:21,300 --> 00:26:19,450
bring in the grant money to to get the

601
00:26:23,640 --> 00:26:21,310
publication's when it's just the

602
00:26:26,460 --> 00:26:23,650
opposite in fact as a scientist the way

603
00:26:28,560 --> 00:26:26,470
you get ahead is by finding something

604
00:26:30,360 --> 00:26:28,570
new by proving everyone else wrong not

605
00:26:32,370 --> 00:26:30,370
by agreeing with what was already known

606
00:26:33,660 --> 00:26:32,380
that's not interesting and the question

607
00:26:35,370 --> 00:26:33,670
I've been asking everyone is why do you

608
00:26:37,110 --> 00:26:35,380
think people how slow to accept this

609
00:26:39,330 --> 00:26:37,120
data and the news why do you think they

610
00:26:41,670 --> 00:26:39,340
don't want to look at it or agree with

611
00:26:43,290 --> 00:26:41,680
it well I think their variety of reasons

612
00:26:45,420 --> 00:26:43,300
you know there are a lot of good folks

613
00:26:46,800 --> 00:26:45,430
out there well-meaning folks who have

614
00:26:49,290 --> 00:26:46,810
been exposed to a lot of misinformation

615
00:26:53,130 --> 00:26:49,300
and and some of that misinformation

616
00:26:55,470 --> 00:26:53,140
comes from media outlets that are sort

617
00:26:57,360 --> 00:26:55,480
of really sort of doing the bidding of

618
00:26:59,700 --> 00:26:57,370
fossil fuel interests and spreading

619
00:27:01,350 --> 00:26:59,710
doubt and confusion and so people are

620
00:27:03,390 --> 00:27:01,360
susceptible to that and people are

621
00:27:06,000 --> 00:27:03,400
victims of that you know misinformation

622
00:27:08,670 --> 00:27:06,010
and disinformation that's why it's so

623
00:27:10,140 --> 00:27:08,680
important for you know scientists to be

624
00:27:12,390 --> 00:27:10,150
out there trying to communicate to the

625
00:27:14,850 --> 00:27:12,400
public that's why I enjoy speaking to

626
00:27:16,740 --> 00:27:14,860
skeptics because true skeptics true

627
00:27:19,110 --> 00:27:16,750
skepticism is a very good thing in

628
00:27:22,190 --> 00:27:19,120
science and we have to reclaim that term

629
00:27:24,020 --> 00:27:22,200
from some who try to appropriate it

630
00:27:25,490 --> 00:27:24,030
you know for other purposes and you'll

631
00:27:27,110 --> 00:27:25,500
give us the great raw data but do you

632
00:27:28,820 --> 00:27:27,120
think the engineers can pull us out of

633
00:27:30,260 --> 00:27:28,830
this and make some scientific thing

634
00:27:32,150 --> 00:27:30,270
that's going to help us and get us out

635
00:27:33,890 --> 00:27:32,160
of it even faster well you know it's not

636
00:27:35,570 --> 00:27:33,900
rocket science as I like to say the

637
00:27:38,000 --> 00:27:35,580
solution to this problem is right in

638
00:27:39,050 --> 00:27:38,010
front of us here in Australia just look

639
00:27:41,120 --> 00:27:39,060
out your window

640
00:27:43,100 --> 00:27:41,130
you've got wind you've got Sun you've

641
00:27:45,860 --> 00:27:43,110
got all of the resources that you need

642
00:27:48,050 --> 00:27:45,870
to rebuild this economy to lead the

643
00:27:50,150 --> 00:27:48,060
world and it's crazy well unfortunately

644
00:27:52,190 --> 00:27:50,160
found the coal force unfortunately

645
00:27:54,320 --> 00:27:52,200
that's right and it's sort of crazy now

646
00:27:57,290 --> 00:27:54,330
that we're doubling down and coal and

647
00:27:59,420 --> 00:27:57,300
natural gas when you've got this amazing

648
00:28:00,770 --> 00:27:59,430
resource in Australia it really could be

649
00:28:02,960 --> 00:28:00,780
leading the world when it comes to clean

650
00:28:04,220 --> 00:28:02,970
energy and I hope they will thank you

651
00:28:04,580 --> 00:28:04,230
very much and enjoy your time with us

652
00:28:07,850 --> 00:28:04,590
tonight

653
00:28:09,530 --> 00:28:07,860
thank you thank you well he would

654
00:28:11,440 --> 00:28:09,540
someone who's just a who looked

655
00:28:15,380 --> 00:28:11,450
Americans listen here's a guy who was

656
00:28:17,060 --> 00:28:15,390
primary health care a user paid Medicare

657
00:28:18,530 --> 00:28:17,070
for all it's what you you experienced

658
00:28:20,030 --> 00:28:18,540
here the Australian version of it didn't

659
00:28:21,500 --> 00:28:20,040
you absolutely actually and it worked

660
00:28:23,450 --> 00:28:21,510
out quite well yeah that's good I'm

661
00:28:24,800 --> 00:28:23,460
alive yeah good work yeah had a burst

662
00:28:26,420 --> 00:28:24,810
appendix and look we're glad you're

663
00:28:27,950 --> 00:28:26,430
feeling up and about Tim thank you very

664
00:28:29,000 --> 00:28:27,960
much mate it's good to be here they're

665
00:28:32,000 --> 00:28:29,010
gonna do a story on a better for the

666
00:28:33,560 --> 00:28:32,010
magazine no I haven't got many good

667
00:28:34,850 --> 00:28:33,570
photos that's the trouble actually and I

668
00:28:37,430 --> 00:28:34,860
don't let you have your little appendix

669
00:28:39,200 --> 00:28:37,440
back these days well since yours first I

670
00:28:40,850 --> 00:28:39,210
imagine it wouldn't be worth having they

671
00:28:44,450 --> 00:28:40,860
had to dispose of them all the little

672
00:28:44,900 --> 00:28:44,460
body parts it's good to see you fit here

673
00:28:47,000 --> 00:28:44,910
tonight

674
00:28:48,920 --> 00:28:47,010
now Michael and man is our guest here

675
00:28:50,600 --> 00:28:48,930
tonight climatologist and geophysicist

676
00:28:52,520 --> 00:28:50,610
who as I've been looking at his record

677
00:28:54,170 --> 00:28:52,530
it looks like he was pretty much not

678
00:28:55,670 --> 00:28:54,180
going anywhere for about 11 years while

679
00:28:57,500 --> 00:28:55,680
he was studying he did that he's done a

680
00:28:59,870 --> 00:28:57,510
lot of study this guy he has actually

681
00:29:01,250 --> 00:28:59,880
yes and I'm gonna be asking him and

682
00:29:02,840 --> 00:29:01,260
everyone around here tonight why do you

683
00:29:05,210 --> 00:29:02,850
think people are slow to accept the

684
00:29:06,740 --> 00:29:05,220
climate change news that the climate may

685
00:29:08,510 --> 00:29:06,750
be changing that carbon dioxide is

686
00:29:10,400 --> 00:29:08,520
affecting things why do you think people

687
00:29:11,360 --> 00:29:10,410
are slow to accept that I think there's

688
00:29:13,310 --> 00:29:11,370
probably a whole range of reasons

689
00:29:16,330 --> 00:29:13,320
actually there and I think most on

690
00:29:19,040 --> 00:29:16,340
aren't very scientific there is a

691
00:29:20,990 --> 00:29:19,050
distrust of scientists in some circles

692
00:29:22,790 --> 00:29:21,000
there people sort of say scientists

693
00:29:24,200 --> 00:29:22,800
developed the bomb and scientists did

694
00:29:26,680 --> 00:29:24,210
this and scientists did that so why

695
00:29:28,810 --> 00:29:26,690
should we trust scientists

696
00:29:30,910 --> 00:29:28,820
we should but the other issue is that a

697
00:29:33,160 --> 00:29:30,920
lot of people find that the what's

698
00:29:35,860 --> 00:29:33,170
involved in dealing with climate change

699
00:29:38,230 --> 00:29:35,870
is actually a bit of an athame

700
00:29:41,470 --> 00:29:38,240
to their politics because climate change

701
00:29:43,420 --> 00:29:41,480
involves two things and government

702
00:29:45,940 --> 00:29:43,430
action is a big part of it or should be

703
00:29:47,560 --> 00:29:45,950
a big part of it and global action is a

704
00:29:49,930 --> 00:29:47,570
big part of it and anyone on a fairly

705
00:29:52,570 --> 00:29:49,940
conservative political bent because both

706
00:29:54,220 --> 00:29:52,580
of those things are horror globalism is

707
00:29:56,020 --> 00:29:54,230
something they was or we can't have that

708
00:29:58,690 --> 00:29:56,030
that's one world government bla bla bla

709
00:30:00,970 --> 00:29:58,700
and government interference is socialism

710
00:30:02,470 --> 00:30:00,980
as they would say in America anything

711
00:30:04,360 --> 00:30:02,480
like that so I think there's a political

712
00:30:05,830 --> 00:30:04,370
aspect to it that turns we block which

713
00:30:09,480 --> 00:30:05,840
is why the vast majority of climate

714
00:30:12,610 --> 00:30:09,490
change deniers on the right wing of

715
00:30:14,920 --> 00:30:12,620
political agendas not to say by any

716
00:30:17,080 --> 00:30:14,930
means that all those who support climate

717
00:30:18,940 --> 00:30:17,090
changes are on the Left there are many

718
00:30:21,700 --> 00:30:18,950
many organizations you'd hardly call

719
00:30:24,670 --> 00:30:21,710
left-leaning socialists who support the

720
00:30:26,320 --> 00:30:24,680
idea of climate change so do you think

721
00:30:27,370 --> 00:30:26,330
it said that people so that gets back to

722
00:30:29,470 --> 00:30:27,380
people just don't want things to change

723
00:30:31,630 --> 00:30:29,480
and it goes against what they're doing

724
00:30:33,130 --> 00:30:31,640
now yeah I think so I think yeah sort of

725
00:30:34,930 --> 00:30:33,140
change is a hard thing to cope with but

726
00:30:36,790 --> 00:30:34,940
there weren't many people some people

727
00:30:38,080 --> 00:30:36,800
find it thrilling that I think a lot of

728
00:30:40,240 --> 00:30:38,090
people find it very daunting and

729
00:30:42,310 --> 00:30:40,250
worrying especially if you're older I

730
00:30:43,990 --> 00:30:42,320
know when flares went out you were

731
00:30:45,250 --> 00:30:44,000
devastated I was horrified yes

732
00:30:46,480 --> 00:30:45,260
especially the little bits of material

733
00:30:52,450 --> 00:30:46,490
you put around the bottom the flares

734
00:30:53,680 --> 00:30:52,460
once they shrunk yes and may not have

735
00:30:56,110 --> 00:30:53,690
learned a valuable lesson this immunity

736
00:30:59,080 --> 00:30:56,120
I think also to be more serious though

737
00:31:03,460 --> 00:30:59,090
right now sorry they're people who

738
00:31:06,610 --> 00:31:03,470
reject climate change on a political

739
00:31:08,440 --> 00:31:06,620
level nor financial social will also

740
00:31:10,720 --> 00:31:08,450
find that they will try and find science

741
00:31:12,310 --> 00:31:10,730
to match and I've been approached many

742
00:31:14,680 --> 00:31:12,320
many many times by people who are

743
00:31:16,420 --> 00:31:14,690
criticizing me and escape leaks and

744
00:31:18,130 --> 00:31:16,430
casting all sorts of aspersions and

745
00:31:20,030 --> 00:31:18,140
quite frankly most of the evidence of

746
00:31:22,850 --> 00:31:20,040
who put forward is

747
00:31:25,850 --> 00:31:22,860
poor and actually easily debunked like

748
00:31:27,260 --> 00:31:25,860
about 30 seconds debunking and I find

749
00:31:28,540 --> 00:31:27,270
that quite depressing that I would

750
00:31:33,050 --> 00:31:28,550
rather have something more formidable

751
00:31:36,230 --> 00:31:33,060
and less vitriolic and political to deal

752
00:31:37,400 --> 00:31:36,240
with I think you've got summed it up

753
00:31:39,470 --> 00:31:37,410
probably everyone's gonna tell me

754
00:31:40,850 --> 00:31:39,480
another version of that argument all

755
00:31:41,600 --> 00:31:40,860
nights and I think it's even good to see

756
00:31:44,570 --> 00:31:41,610
up and around again

757
00:31:45,830 --> 00:31:44,580
thanks man well they had it with dr.

758
00:31:47,270 --> 00:31:45,840
Mann who may not hear and I'm big

759
00:31:48,830 --> 00:31:47,280
skeptical night they've got a dinner

760
00:31:50,300 --> 00:31:48,840
coming up sometime in the future and who

761
00:31:52,460 --> 00:31:50,310
knows that will be it's been a big night

762
00:31:54,020 --> 00:31:52,470
I think as we can all agree

763
00:31:55,670 --> 00:31:54,030
climate change has really been the

764
00:31:57,260 --> 00:31:55,680
winner tonight but skepticism and

765
00:31:58,640 --> 00:31:57,270
critical thinking has been the winner on

766
00:31:59,870 --> 00:31:58,650
the night I've got to go off and get on

767
00:32:01,400 --> 00:31:59,880
a float now and the Sydney gay and

768
00:32:03,080 --> 00:32:01,410
lesbian Mardi Gras I've got a party to

769
00:32:04,940 --> 00:32:03,090
join with several ten thousands of my

770
00:32:07,100 --> 00:32:04,950
friends so I'll see you later

771
00:32:25,539 --> 00:32:07,110
happy Mardi Gras everybody climate

772
00:32:29,389 --> 00:32:28,039
today this is dr. Karl Karl Chris must

773
00:32:31,519 --> 00:32:29,399
be proud to be a skeptic and you can

774
00:32:36,770 --> 00:32:31,529
find out more about me at dr. Karl calm

775
00:33:01,610 --> 00:32:59,680
[Music]

776
00:33:04,400 --> 00:33:01,620
logical fallacies

777
00:33:07,530 --> 00:33:04,410
[Music]

778
00:33:09,600 --> 00:33:07,540
what are the logical fallacies and why

779
00:33:11,910 --> 00:33:09,610
is it important that critical thinkers

780
00:33:14,640 --> 00:33:11,920
should know about them

781
00:33:17,670 --> 00:33:14,650
a logical fallacy is an error we can

782
00:33:19,920 --> 00:33:17,680
make in reasoning but it usually crops

783
00:33:23,670 --> 00:33:19,930
up when we are discussing or arguing our

784
00:33:26,100 --> 00:33:23,680
point of view some people might even

785
00:33:27,810 --> 00:33:26,110
knowingly use them to try and score

786
00:33:31,710 --> 00:33:27,820
cheap points in an argument

787
00:33:34,260 --> 00:33:31,720
due to intellectual laziness they are

788
00:33:36,510 --> 00:33:34,270
traps we can fall into but if we know

789
00:33:38,820 --> 00:33:36,520
what to look out for we can spot them

790
00:33:41,340 --> 00:33:38,830
when they occur and stop ourselves from

791
00:33:45,440 --> 00:33:41,350
using them

792
00:33:48,420 --> 00:33:45,450
[Music]

793
00:33:52,950 --> 00:33:48,430
this week we'll look at the appeal to

794
00:33:55,500 --> 00:33:52,960
popularity also known as being on the

795
00:33:57,660 --> 00:33:55,510
bandwagon this is when you try to add

796
00:34:01,260 --> 00:33:57,670
weight to your point of view by pointing

797
00:34:03,270 --> 00:34:01,270
out that many people also agree with you

798
00:34:06,800 --> 00:34:03,280
we've all seen this sort of thing

799
00:34:09,360 --> 00:34:06,810
especially from advertisers who claim

800
00:34:12,330 --> 00:34:09,370
thousands of people use our product

801
00:34:16,230 --> 00:34:12,340
every day and they all can't be wrong

802
00:34:19,500 --> 00:34:16,240
well yes the product might work and be

803
00:34:23,220 --> 00:34:19,510
wonderful but at other times thousands

804
00:34:27,480 --> 00:34:23,230
of people can indeed be wrong everyone

805
00:34:30,180 --> 00:34:27,490
at school has one come on I really need

806
00:34:32,159 --> 00:34:30,190
this maybe you remember making this

807
00:34:35,460 --> 00:34:32,169
argument to your parents when you were

808
00:34:39,030 --> 00:34:35,470
at school something would come along a

809
00:34:43,020 --> 00:34:39,040
new toy or device maybe and it becomes

810
00:34:47,460 --> 00:34:43,030
very popular suddenly you having one as

811
00:34:50,940 --> 00:34:47,470
well is very important whatever it is

812
00:34:54,810 --> 00:34:50,950
might not really be that good but its

813
00:34:56,490 --> 00:34:54,820
popularity makes it desirable all my

814
00:34:59,640 --> 00:34:56,500
friends use homeopathy to treat

815
00:35:03,060 --> 00:34:59,650
everything from rash to insomnia this

816
00:35:07,550 --> 00:35:03,070
discredited medical quackery simply does

817
00:35:09,960 --> 00:35:07,560
not and cannot work as claimed yet

818
00:35:13,920 --> 00:35:09,970
thousands and thousands of people all

819
00:35:16,800 --> 00:35:13,930
over the world swear by it just because

820
00:35:19,800 --> 00:35:16,810
some or many people use a product or

821
00:35:24,360 --> 00:35:19,810
believe in something it doesn't mean it

822
00:35:26,940 --> 00:35:24,370
works or it's real if one person can be

823
00:35:31,590 --> 00:35:26,950
wrong about something then hundreds or

824
00:35:33,870 --> 00:35:31,600
thousands or millions can be as well by

825
00:35:36,360 --> 00:35:33,880
far the majority of climate scientists

826
00:35:40,160 --> 00:35:36,370
agree that climate change is real and

827
00:35:43,140 --> 00:35:40,170
humans are a major contributing factor

828
00:35:46,680 --> 00:35:43,150
now here's the flipside of this logical

829
00:35:50,850 --> 00:35:46,690
fallacy sometimes the weight of opinion

830
00:35:54,030 --> 00:35:50,860
is Right science can and does change its

831
00:35:57,420 --> 00:35:54,040
mind but it relies largely on consensus

832
00:35:58,550 --> 00:35:57,430
in other words on the conclusion of most

833
00:36:04,280 --> 00:35:58,560
scientists in

834
00:36:06,710 --> 00:36:04,290
area of study in the end the popularity

835
00:36:09,860 --> 00:36:06,720
of an idea should not determine the

836
00:36:12,410 --> 00:36:09,870
validity of that idea and must stand or

837
00:36:14,270 --> 00:36:12,420
fall on its own merits but it is

838
00:36:20,450 --> 00:36:14,280
appealing to think that if many people

839
00:36:25,520 --> 00:36:22,810
[Music]

840
00:36:27,980 --> 00:36:25,530
knowing a logical fallacy when you hear

841
00:36:30,350 --> 00:36:27,990
one and even knowing its name is

842
00:36:34,040 --> 00:36:30,360
important when arguing your point of

843
00:36:36,860 --> 00:36:34,050
view however you may come across as

844
00:36:39,440 --> 00:36:36,870
arrogant and not get very far if you

845
00:36:43,190 --> 00:36:39,450
call it out by name to your opponent

846
00:36:45,500 --> 00:36:43,200
when you hear it being used if your

847
00:36:48,050 --> 00:36:45,510
opponent calls you out for using one

848
00:36:51,920 --> 00:36:48,060
it's time to stop and think about how

849
00:36:54,230 --> 00:36:51,930
you are making your case use your

850
00:36:57,530 --> 00:36:54,240
knowledge of logical fallacies wisely

851
00:36:59,810 --> 00:36:57,540
and remember that even if your point of

852
00:37:02,840 --> 00:36:59,820
view is right and you know all the

853
00:37:06,350 --> 00:37:02,850
pitfalls in arguing your case it doesn't

854
00:37:09,740 --> 00:37:06,360
always mean you'll win on the day and a

855
00:37:15,530 --> 00:37:09,750
skeptics we must also remember that we

856
00:37:18,200 --> 00:37:15,540
too can be wrong at times I'm sure

857
00:37:27,140 --> 00:37:18,210
because my from the VEX skeptics thanks

858
00:37:36,350 --> 00:37:32,800
[Music]

859
00:37:38,540 --> 00:37:36,360
upcoming events at Canberra the Canberra

860
00:37:41,320 --> 00:37:38,550
skeptics proudly present winning

861
00:37:45,020 --> 00:37:41,330
restaurants how the game of thrones

862
00:37:47,390 --> 00:37:45,030
explains modern military conflict now

863
00:37:51,790 --> 00:37:47,400
this will be Friday the 13th of March

864
00:37:54,410 --> 00:37:51,800
from 6 p.m. and the speaker is Mick cook

865
00:37:56,870 --> 00:37:54,420
set in the fictitious world of race or

866
00:37:58,040 --> 00:37:56,880
us the hit television series Game of

867
00:38:00,050 --> 00:37:58,050
Thrones

868
00:38:02,300 --> 00:38:00,060
chronicles the bitter and violent

869
00:38:04,550 --> 00:38:02,310
struggle between the realms of noble

870
00:38:07,430 --> 00:38:04,560
dynasties for control of the Seven

871
00:38:10,430 --> 00:38:07,440
Kingdoms myself dramatic but this

872
00:38:12,830 --> 00:38:10,440
beloved fantasy drama has just as much

873
00:38:16,010 --> 00:38:12,840
to say about successful strategies as

874
00:38:20,540 --> 00:38:16,020
real-life warfare waged in our time and

875
00:38:23,450 --> 00:38:20,550
place winning Westeros brings together

876
00:38:26,570 --> 00:38:23,460
more than 30 of today's top military and

877
00:38:29,410 --> 00:38:26,580
strategic experts including generals and

878
00:38:31,420 --> 00:38:29,420
admirals policy advisors

879
00:38:33,980 --> 00:38:31,430
counterinsurgency tactician 'he's

880
00:38:36,020 --> 00:38:33,990
science fiction and fantasy writers and

881
00:38:39,590 --> 00:38:36,030
ground-level military officers to

882
00:38:43,580 --> 00:38:39,600
explain the strategy and art of war by

883
00:38:45,800 --> 00:38:43,590
way of the game of thrones saga now that

884
00:38:48,970 --> 00:38:45,810
sounds like a fascinating event the cost

885
00:38:51,980 --> 00:38:48,980
is free and that will be at the

886
00:38:55,640 --> 00:38:51,990
Belconnen Community Service which is in

887
00:38:59,480 --> 00:38:55,650
the Belconnen the camera and coming up

888
00:39:03,590 --> 00:38:59,490
in April overview of rands truth decay

889
00:39:05,720 --> 00:39:03,600
initiative 16th of April and that will

890
00:39:09,020 --> 00:39:05,730
be at the same venue the Belconnen

891
00:39:12,140 --> 00:39:09,030
community service and the speaker is dr.

892
00:39:14,390 --> 00:39:12,150
Karl Rhodes over the past two decades

893
00:39:16,010 --> 00:39:14,400
national political and civil discourse

894
00:39:19,280 --> 00:39:16,020
in the United States has been

895
00:39:21,400 --> 00:39:19,290
characterized by truth decay

896
00:39:25,330 --> 00:39:21,410
Carl will provide an overview of

897
00:39:29,000 --> 00:39:25,340
Jennifer Cavanaugh's and Michael riches

898
00:39:31,250 --> 00:39:29,010
2018 report defining an examining truth

899
00:39:33,320 --> 00:39:31,260
decay and provide information about

900
00:39:35,330 --> 00:39:33,330
continuing to work on the topic and

901
00:39:37,490 --> 00:39:35,340
those events are coming up for the

902
00:39:40,070 --> 00:39:37,500
Canberra skeptics if you wish to attend

903
00:39:57,050 --> 00:39:40,080
I will add a link in this week's show

904
00:40:07,520 --> 00:39:57,060
notes it's the raw skeptic reporting

905
00:40:09,730 --> 00:40:07,530
with Heidi Robertson hello everyone

906
00:40:13,580 --> 00:40:09,740
Heidi Robertson from the Northern Rivers

907
00:40:16,970 --> 00:40:13,590
vaccination supporters we are very lucky

908
00:40:20,540 --> 00:40:16,980
this week to have dr. sue page joining

909
00:40:22,790 --> 00:40:20,550
us dr. page is a nationally recognized

910
00:40:24,890 --> 00:40:22,800
leader in Australia's primary care

911
00:40:28,570 --> 00:40:24,900
sector with experience in medical

912
00:40:31,250 --> 00:40:28,580
education workforce and rural health

913
00:40:34,730 --> 00:40:31,260
she's a former president of the rural

914
00:40:37,460 --> 00:40:34,740
doctors Association of Australia and has

915
00:40:40,940 --> 00:40:37,470
held state and federal ministerial

916
00:40:43,700 --> 00:40:40,950
advisory roles in multiple areas she has

917
00:40:46,960 --> 00:40:43,710
many years of experience as a rural GP

918
00:40:50,270 --> 00:40:46,970
as well as working in remote northern

919
00:40:53,690 --> 00:40:50,280
territory Christmas Island and Manus

920
00:40:55,460 --> 00:40:53,700
Island detention centres she has been

921
00:40:57,680 --> 00:40:55,470
awarded membership of the Order of

922
00:41:00,430 --> 00:40:57,690
Australia in recognition of her service

923
00:41:03,050 --> 00:41:00,440
to medicine and to the community

924
00:41:05,180 --> 00:41:03,060
currently she is director for medical

925
00:41:08,510 --> 00:41:05,190
services in a Regional Hospital here in

926
00:41:10,760 --> 00:41:08,520
Australia I got to know sue personally

927
00:41:14,990 --> 00:41:10,770
through my workers in a vaccination

928
00:41:17,060 --> 00:41:15,000
advocate and she has been right behind

929
00:41:20,180 --> 00:41:17,070
us the Northern Rivers vaccination

930
00:41:24,230 --> 00:41:20,190
supporters from the start I still hear

931
00:41:27,230 --> 00:41:24,240
her in my ears most weeks on ABC local

932
00:41:30,710 --> 00:41:27,240
radio where she has a guest spot called

933
00:41:32,280 --> 00:41:30,720
Paige the doctor talking all things

934
00:41:36,120 --> 00:41:32,290
medical

935
00:41:42,000 --> 00:41:36,130
and most importantly she is an all-round

936
00:41:45,540 --> 00:41:42,010
awesome human being so thank you very

937
00:41:47,850 --> 00:41:45,550
much for joining us dr. sue Paige good

938
00:41:53,040 --> 00:41:47,860
morning Heidi we're talking on Friday

939
00:41:55,530 --> 00:41:53,050
the 6th of March so by the time this

940
00:41:57,570 --> 00:41:55,540
goes out to listeners and by the time

941
00:42:01,110 --> 00:41:57,580
listeners actually download the show and

942
00:42:03,800 --> 00:42:01,120
listen to this episode no doubt there'll

943
00:42:07,880 --> 00:42:03,810
be many more updates on this ever

944
00:42:11,370 --> 00:42:07,890
evolving situation with Co fad 19

945
00:42:14,010 --> 00:42:11,380
coronavirus so we're just going to chat

946
00:42:16,940 --> 00:42:14,020
about what has been going on up until

947
00:42:19,860 --> 00:42:16,950
this point I'd like to start with how

948
00:42:23,850 --> 00:42:19,870
how worried do you think people should

949
00:42:26,250 --> 00:42:23,860
be let's just compare it say to seasonal

950
00:42:29,220 --> 00:42:26,260
influenza which as we know infects

951
00:42:31,530 --> 00:42:29,230
thousands of people Australians every

952
00:42:33,780 --> 00:42:31,540
year and depending on the year hundreds

953
00:42:35,610 --> 00:42:33,790
of people can even die from seasonal

954
00:42:38,160 --> 00:42:35,620
influenza how concerned should we be

955
00:42:41,070 --> 00:42:38,170
about this cope at 19 in comparison to

956
00:42:43,730 --> 00:42:41,080
say influenza and I guess the first

957
00:42:46,200 --> 00:42:43,740
thing to say is it's very hard to put

958
00:42:47,730 --> 00:42:46,210
coronaviruses and influenza head to air

959
00:42:51,870 --> 00:42:47,740
and the biggest difference that we see

960
00:42:53,580 --> 00:42:51,880
there is that influenza is well on

961
00:42:56,240 --> 00:42:53,590
everybody's radar every year we're

962
00:42:58,890 --> 00:42:56,250
developing a slightly new variation of

963
00:43:01,110 --> 00:42:58,900
vaccine the vast majority of people who

964
00:43:03,450 --> 00:43:01,120
are at risk of influenza are treated

965
00:43:05,370 --> 00:43:03,460
with vaccination and so though we say

966
00:43:07,110 --> 00:43:05,380
that each year they're about 3,000

967
00:43:09,690 --> 00:43:07,120
deaths per year in Australia for example

968
00:43:11,670 --> 00:43:09,700
it's very hard to extrapolate that data

969
00:43:12,660 --> 00:43:11,680
with what's likely to happen with

970
00:43:15,780 --> 00:43:12,670
coronavirus

971
00:43:18,390 --> 00:43:15,790
corona viruses are a large family of

972
00:43:20,250 --> 00:43:18,400
viruses that can cause a variety of

973
00:43:22,650 --> 00:43:20,260
illnesses that range from through your

974
00:43:24,720 --> 00:43:22,660
head colds right through to more severe

975
00:43:28,110 --> 00:43:24,730
diseases like Middle East respiratory

976
00:43:30,330 --> 00:43:28,120
syndrome which is MERS or severe acute

977
00:43:33,480 --> 00:43:30,340
respiratory syndrome which is sighs and

978
00:43:34,020 --> 00:43:33,490
I guess if you were going to compare

979
00:43:38,830 --> 00:43:34,030
those

980
00:43:43,270 --> 00:43:38,840
illnesses to be influenza family which

981
00:43:48,150 --> 00:43:43,280
are things like the h1n1 pandemic that

982
00:43:52,270 --> 00:43:48,160
happened in 1918 or the more recent h1n1

983
00:43:55,930 --> 00:43:52,280
influenza that happened in the in the

984
00:43:58,480 --> 00:43:55,940
sort of late 2000s a 2009 they which was

985
00:44:00,099 --> 00:43:58,490
swine flu so we were going to compare it

986
00:44:02,470 --> 00:44:00,109
to the employers that are at that more

987
00:44:04,630 --> 00:44:02,480
serious range probably the one to think

988
00:44:08,700 --> 00:44:04,640
about it would be the h1n1 pandemic

989
00:44:13,090 --> 00:44:08,710
which was 1918 because that one had

990
00:44:15,010 --> 00:44:13,100
similar fatality rates per percentage of

991
00:44:18,700 --> 00:44:15,020
people infected to what the early

992
00:44:21,400 --> 00:44:18,710
reports of Corona were so our our most

993
00:44:23,410 --> 00:44:21,410
important mainstay for any of these

994
00:44:24,670 --> 00:44:23,420
viral illnesses is vaccination and not

995
00:44:26,680 --> 00:44:24,680
getting the illness in the first place

996
00:44:28,810 --> 00:44:26,690
and this particular virus hasn't been

997
00:44:31,030 --> 00:44:28,820
around for long enough for us to be able

998
00:44:33,670 --> 00:44:31,040
to identify specific components within

999
00:44:35,470 --> 00:44:33,680
it to make a vaccine and to then get the

1000
00:44:37,359 --> 00:44:35,480
vaccine tested and then distributed

1001
00:44:38,770 --> 00:44:37,369
across a wide apart population that's

1002
00:44:41,500 --> 00:44:38,780
why this is a bit a bit of an unknown

1003
00:44:43,840 --> 00:44:41,510
feast the vast majority of people who

1004
00:44:44,980 --> 00:44:43,850
catch the loner virus have either no

1005
00:44:48,190 --> 00:44:44,990
symptoms at all

1006
00:44:49,750 --> 00:44:48,200
or have very mild symptoms so of the

1007
00:44:52,210 --> 00:44:49,760
people who are testing positive about

1008
00:44:53,650 --> 00:44:52,220
80% are having a mile of course and

1009
00:44:56,620 --> 00:44:53,660
obviously there's a whole lot of people

1010
00:44:58,120 --> 00:44:56,630
but thinking that maybe they just got a

1011
00:45:00,970 --> 00:44:58,130
head cold and they're not even getting

1012
00:45:03,070 --> 00:45:00,980
tested in the first place with captive

1013
00:45:05,080 --> 00:45:03,080
populations where we actually say okay

1014
00:45:06,520 --> 00:45:05,090
well we know that we've got a person

1015
00:45:08,200 --> 00:45:06,530
who's infected definitely in this

1016
00:45:09,640 --> 00:45:08,210
subgroup so we're going to test

1017
00:45:12,400 --> 00:45:09,650
everybody whether or not they've got

1018
00:45:15,040 --> 00:45:12,410
symptoms and an example there is people

1019
00:45:16,300 --> 00:45:15,050
on the cruise ship for example so with

1020
00:45:19,150 --> 00:45:16,310
the first cruise ship that had

1021
00:45:21,640 --> 00:45:19,160
contamination 38% of the cruise ship

1022
00:45:24,040 --> 00:45:21,650
ended up being infected but they were

1023
00:45:27,820 --> 00:45:24,050
people who are in close contact for a

1024
00:45:30,849 --> 00:45:27,830
prolonged period of time kind of like an

1025
00:45:32,740 --> 00:45:30,859
artificial situation if you like so so

1026
00:45:35,140 --> 00:45:32,750
we've probably got an effectively rage

1027
00:45:38,170 --> 00:45:35,150
that's somewhere around that you might

1028
00:45:40,140 --> 00:45:38,180
infect two or three people right up to

1029
00:45:41,670 --> 00:45:40,150
in close contact

1030
00:45:43,830 --> 00:45:41,680
you can infect half of the people that

1031
00:45:46,020 --> 00:45:43,840
you hang around with that's a really

1032
00:45:49,470 --> 00:45:46,030
broad range what is that going to look

1033
00:45:51,600 --> 00:45:49,480
like in the future I probably want to be

1034
00:45:54,650 --> 00:45:51,610
the interesting sights if somebody wants

1035
00:45:58,410 --> 00:45:54,660
to have a look at it is world o meters

1036
00:46:00,870 --> 00:45:58,420
info forward slash Perona virus so this

1037
00:46:02,850 --> 00:46:00,880
is a live site that tells you where

1038
00:46:06,720 --> 00:46:02,860
we're up to and the most recent update

1039
00:46:11,030 --> 00:46:06,730
for example is at 1:55 this morning GMT

1040
00:46:14,640 --> 00:46:11,040
and at that time there were 98 thousand

1041
00:46:18,960 --> 00:46:14,650
420 coronavirus cases in the world now

1042
00:46:21,300 --> 00:46:18,970
death rate again is varying enormous by

1043
00:46:23,540 --> 00:46:21,310
country so across the whole batch of

1044
00:46:26,130 --> 00:46:23,550
everybody that we now know is positive

1045
00:46:28,650 --> 00:46:26,140
the vast majority have recovered without

1046
00:46:30,090 --> 00:46:28,660
there being a problem three thousand

1047
00:46:32,430 --> 00:46:30,100
three hundred and eighty-five people

1048
00:46:37,740 --> 00:46:32,440
have died which puts the death rate at

1049
00:46:41,550 --> 00:46:37,750
about 0.03 percent and we're a lot of

1050
00:46:43,830 --> 00:46:41,560
steroids yeah yeah the the scary thing

1051
00:46:46,260 --> 00:46:43,840
for me about coronavirus is at the

1052
00:46:48,240 --> 00:46:46,270
average length of takes a length of time

1053
00:46:49,890 --> 00:46:48,250
that somebody is requiring to be on a

1054
00:46:53,910 --> 00:46:49,900
ventilator once they've reached that

1055
00:46:55,500 --> 00:46:53,920
stage is about 20 days Wow so if you

1056
00:46:57,780 --> 00:46:55,510
think about the number of intensive care

1057
00:46:59,910 --> 00:46:57,790
beds that we had across any nation and

1058
00:47:02,160 --> 00:46:59,920
imagine them filling up with the first

1059
00:47:04,920 --> 00:47:02,170
cohort of people with the severe end of

1060
00:47:07,440 --> 00:47:04,930
coronavirus and then there then there

1061
00:47:09,300 --> 00:47:07,450
for the next three weeks then you can

1062
00:47:10,740 --> 00:47:09,310
imagine a scenario where quite rapidly

1063
00:47:13,770 --> 00:47:10,750
you're running out of intensive care

1064
00:47:15,900 --> 00:47:13,780
beds for people that have motor vehicle

1065
00:47:18,390 --> 00:47:15,910
accident trauma for example or Falls

1066
00:47:20,280 --> 00:47:18,400
from Heights with head injuries and then

1067
00:47:23,130 --> 00:47:20,290
you start to say well how old's the

1068
00:47:24,740 --> 00:47:23,140
health profession deal with this and we

1069
00:47:29,220 --> 00:47:24,750
probably are talking in most countries

1070
00:47:33,060 --> 00:47:29,230
some form of rationing access to our

1071
00:47:35,520 --> 00:47:33,070
intensive care units if if there's an as

1072
00:47:37,170 --> 00:47:35,530
a person over the age of 80 you've

1073
00:47:38,940 --> 00:47:37,180
already signed that advance health care

1074
00:47:40,910 --> 00:47:38,950
directive or a statement of choice

1075
00:47:43,110 --> 00:47:40,920
directive that says you know what I

1076
00:47:44,850 --> 00:47:43,120
really don't want to have a plastic tube

1077
00:47:47,280 --> 00:47:44,860
stuck down my throat with artificial

1078
00:47:47,880 --> 00:47:47,290
life support then now would certainly be

1079
00:47:49,279 --> 00:47:47,890
a time

1080
00:47:51,749 --> 00:47:49,289
filling out the paperwork for that

1081
00:47:53,700 --> 00:47:51,759
because that will certainly make it much

1082
00:47:55,410 --> 00:47:53,710
easier for your family it'll make it

1083
00:47:58,440 --> 00:47:55,420
much easier for the health professionals

1084
00:47:59,910 --> 00:47:58,450
to say okay we'll make you comfortable

1085
00:48:02,430 --> 00:47:59,920
so that you're not going to be

1086
00:48:04,589 --> 00:48:02,440
struggling to breathe but we'll save the

1087
00:48:09,870 --> 00:48:04,599
ventilator for somebody who might be 30

1088
00:48:11,460 --> 00:48:09,880
or 40 and maybe the parent of young

1089
00:48:13,680 --> 00:48:11,470
children you know either infants or

1090
00:48:16,499 --> 00:48:13,690
primary school keys yeah so that's

1091
00:48:21,120 --> 00:48:16,509
something we should I've always been a

1092
00:48:23,069 --> 00:48:21,130
strong advocate of people filling out an

1093
00:48:24,569 --> 00:48:23,079
advanced health care directive not

1094
00:48:26,849 --> 00:48:24,579
waiting until it's absolutely necessary

1095
00:48:28,710 --> 00:48:26,859
to do so because then it might be too

1096
00:48:31,259 --> 00:48:28,720
late and you've got to have the mental

1097
00:48:33,210 --> 00:48:31,269
capacity in which to do it so everyone

1098
00:48:35,789 --> 00:48:33,220
out there if you haven't already done an

1099
00:48:38,489 --> 00:48:35,799
advanced health care directive do it now

1100
00:48:41,370 --> 00:48:38,499
not just because of coronavirus but just

1101
00:48:43,470 --> 00:48:41,380
in general it's a great idea what do you

1102
00:48:47,069 --> 00:48:43,480
recommend the average Joe on the street

1103
00:48:50,579 --> 00:48:47,079
can do in order to prepare for what

1104
00:48:54,059 --> 00:48:50,589
could be quite a burden on our

1105
00:48:54,599 --> 00:48:54,069
healthcare system yeah it's by far and

1106
00:48:56,670 --> 00:48:54,609
away

1107
00:48:58,739 --> 00:48:56,680
that the easiest and most effective way

1108
00:49:01,049 --> 00:48:58,749
to protect yourself is to promote good

1109
00:49:02,640 --> 00:49:01,059
personal hygiene measures so I've kind

1110
00:49:06,660 --> 00:49:02,650
of challenged everybody but in the next

1111
00:49:09,720 --> 00:49:06,670
48 hours just keep a mental tally of how

1112
00:49:11,190 --> 00:49:09,730
many times you touch your face you're

1113
00:49:13,019 --> 00:49:11,200
brushing hair off your face you're

1114
00:49:16,739 --> 00:49:13,029
rubbing the end of your nose you're

1115
00:49:19,620 --> 00:49:16,749
eating I tell you what I tell you what

1116
00:49:22,140 --> 00:49:19,630
the last few days I have been I don't

1117
00:49:24,059 --> 00:49:22,150
know about you but I probably do this

1118
00:49:26,970 --> 00:49:24,069
all the time anyway I've been extra

1119
00:49:29,220 --> 00:49:26,980
aware of that and how many times I

1120
00:49:30,599 --> 00:49:29,230
actually do touch my face even if I've

1121
00:49:33,239 --> 00:49:30,609
got a little tickle on the end of my

1122
00:49:35,430 --> 00:49:33,249
nose and I just I just rub it I'm

1123
00:49:37,829 --> 00:49:35,440
thinking now oh my god do I have to wash

1124
00:49:41,120 --> 00:49:37,839
my hands I think we're all becoming a

1125
00:49:43,829 --> 00:49:41,130
bit more aware which is not a bad thing

1126
00:49:45,420 --> 00:49:43,839
just basic personal hygiene and again

1127
00:49:50,759 --> 00:49:45,430
this is the stuff we should be doing

1128
00:49:53,130 --> 00:49:50,769
every day anyway absolutely and and just

1129
00:49:55,289 --> 00:49:53,140
soap and water washing is actually

1130
00:49:56,730 --> 00:49:55,299
really effective at removing a little

1131
00:49:58,680 --> 00:49:56,740
protein chain

1132
00:50:01,859 --> 00:49:58,690
from your hands if you touch for example

1133
00:50:04,200 --> 00:50:01,869
a handrail at the shopping center that's

1134
00:50:05,850 --> 00:50:04,210
had germs on it nor washing your hands

1135
00:50:07,800 --> 00:50:05,860
will wash those germs away you know

1136
00:50:10,560 --> 00:50:07,810
we've been taught this um is there a

1137
00:50:11,790 --> 00:50:10,570
value in alcohol hand drugs look when

1138
00:50:13,109 --> 00:50:11,800
you've got people who are washing their

1139
00:50:14,850 --> 00:50:13,119
hands multiple times in the hospital

1140
00:50:17,190 --> 00:50:14,860
they've actually done studies and

1141
00:50:19,410 --> 00:50:17,200
they've looked at whether or not people

1142
00:50:21,540 --> 00:50:19,420
effectively use the soap and water and

1143
00:50:23,280 --> 00:50:21,550
then properly dry their hands afterwards

1144
00:50:25,710 --> 00:50:23,290
and the length of time that happens and

1145
00:50:27,720 --> 00:50:25,720
you will actually get less dermatitis

1146
00:50:30,330 --> 00:50:27,730
and greater cleanliness if you're using

1147
00:50:31,710 --> 00:50:30,340
the alcohol hand drugs but working it

1148
00:50:34,680 --> 00:50:31,720
into your fingernails in between your

1149
00:50:36,540 --> 00:50:34,690
fingers legally so that's for people who

1150
00:50:39,420 --> 00:50:36,550
are washing their hands multiple times a

1151
00:50:42,090 --> 00:50:39,430
day for the average person so you know

1152
00:50:44,070 --> 00:50:42,100
soap and water and allowing your hands

1153
00:50:46,500 --> 00:50:44,080
to dry properly before you're touching

1154
00:50:49,590 --> 00:50:46,510
things is probably fine yeah and I've

1155
00:50:51,180 --> 00:50:49,600
heard that whole that not just a really

1156
00:50:54,000 --> 00:50:51,190
quick rinse with soap and water but a

1157
00:50:56,250 --> 00:50:54,010
full twenty seconds they're saying yeah

1158
00:50:57,840 --> 00:50:56,260
and again getting it getting it onto the

1159
00:50:59,130 --> 00:50:57,850
surfaces and the little nooks and

1160
00:51:02,130 --> 00:50:59,140
crannies like ramp like around your

1161
00:51:05,099 --> 00:51:02,140
fingernails yes yeah and if any

1162
00:51:08,310 --> 00:51:05,109
listeners haven't listened yet to the

1163
00:51:10,770 --> 00:51:08,320
report on last week's skeptic zone about

1164
00:51:14,849 --> 00:51:10,780
face masks and the pros and cons Trish

1165
00:51:17,910 --> 00:51:14,859
Han did that well well worth a listen to

1166
00:51:22,560 --> 00:51:17,920
and on that as well sue my husband's a

1167
00:51:28,050 --> 00:51:22,570
builder and he went into a large will no

1168
00:51:30,960 --> 00:51:28,060
known hardware store yesterday and to

1169
00:51:32,790 --> 00:51:30,970
buy his crew some face masks because

1170
00:51:36,960 --> 00:51:32,800
they are doing some concrete cutting at

1171
00:51:39,240 --> 00:51:36,970
the moment and guess what no face masks

1172
00:51:40,859 --> 00:51:39,250
people are going into hardware stores

1173
00:51:43,290 --> 00:51:40,869
now and clearing the shelves of face

1174
00:51:46,770 --> 00:51:43,300
masks so one thing I'd like to recommend

1175
00:51:50,190 --> 00:51:46,780
is that pretty much everybody join flu

1176
00:51:54,300 --> 00:51:50,200
tracking now this is info dot flu

1177
00:51:58,980 --> 00:51:54,310
tracking dotnet this is a site where you

1178
00:52:00,930 --> 00:51:58,990
can log on and it will certainly this is

1179
00:52:02,300 --> 00:52:00,940
for Australia New Zealand I actually

1180
00:52:05,220 --> 00:52:02,310
don't know if it's in other countries

1181
00:52:06,140 --> 00:52:05,230
but it it will send you a reminder once

1182
00:52:07,700 --> 00:52:06,150
a week and you can

1183
00:52:09,620 --> 00:52:07,710
whether or not you've got any symptoms

1184
00:52:11,089 --> 00:52:09,630
and because people are using this on

1185
00:52:13,069 --> 00:52:11,099
their phone and it's bumping up across

1186
00:52:15,349 --> 00:52:13,079
the whole of the country you can start

1187
00:52:17,299 --> 00:52:15,359
to see hotspots of where people are

1188
00:52:18,890 --> 00:52:17,309
starting to become febrile no matter

1189
00:52:20,930 --> 00:52:18,900
what it is you know it might be a head

1190
00:52:23,059 --> 00:52:20,940
cold might be employing so it might be

1191
00:52:25,309 --> 00:52:23,069
coronavirus but at least you can see the

1192
00:52:27,650 --> 00:52:25,319
heat maps developing and that means that

1193
00:52:29,120 --> 00:52:27,660
we can start doing more testing in areas

1194
00:52:31,519 --> 00:52:29,130
that look like they're getting a rapid

1195
00:52:33,739 --> 00:52:31,529
change which is a great public health

1196
00:52:36,680 --> 00:52:33,749
surveillance opportunity one other thing

1197
00:52:39,859 --> 00:52:36,690
that people can do to make sure that

1198
00:52:43,480 --> 00:52:39,869
they are well prepared if is make sure

1199
00:52:46,819 --> 00:52:43,490
that any other illnesses chronic

1200
00:52:48,739 --> 00:52:46,829
illnesses that they have are well

1201
00:52:50,569 --> 00:52:48,749
managed that you've got your scripts

1202
00:52:52,759 --> 00:52:50,579
up-to-date that you've got enough should

1203
00:52:55,430 --> 00:52:52,769
you be quarantined to last you for that

1204
00:52:56,799 --> 00:52:55,440
length of time and and what else with

1205
00:52:59,809 --> 00:52:56,809
regards to that

1206
00:53:00,799 --> 00:52:59,819
well again the key thing the key thing

1207
00:53:03,769 --> 00:53:00,809
we know at this stage is that

1208
00:53:06,380 --> 00:53:03,779
coronavirus is more serious if you are

1209
00:53:08,660 --> 00:53:06,390
older and if you've got comorbidities of

1210
00:53:11,089 --> 00:53:08,670
which the most significant comorbidity

1211
00:53:12,950 --> 00:53:11,099
is cardiovascular disease but also

1212
00:53:16,069 --> 00:53:12,960
things you know diabetes high blood

1213
00:53:18,499 --> 00:53:16,079
pressure and so on so if you are

1214
00:53:20,380 --> 00:53:18,509
somebody who has chronic illnesses for

1215
00:53:22,700 --> 00:53:20,390
which for which you require medication

1216
00:53:25,759 --> 00:53:22,710
now is a time that I would be booking

1217
00:53:28,819 --> 00:53:25,769
yourself it routinely widely fit well to

1218
00:53:31,430 --> 00:53:28,829
go to your your usual can provider in

1219
00:53:33,710 --> 00:53:31,440
Australia that's usually a GP to make

1220
00:53:35,450 --> 00:53:33,720
sure that your illness is optimized as

1221
00:53:37,069 --> 00:53:35,460
much as possible if you are going to

1222
00:53:39,890 --> 00:53:37,079
catch the rotavirus in the future you

1223
00:53:41,420 --> 00:53:39,900
want to be as fit as possible so that

1224
00:53:43,519 --> 00:53:41,430
you are in the good percentage that does

1225
00:53:45,739 --> 00:53:43,529
really well rather than the percentage

1226
00:53:49,420 --> 00:53:45,749
that struggles make sure that you've got

1227
00:53:51,710 --> 00:53:49,430
your scripts up-to-date many many

1228
00:53:53,210 --> 00:53:51,720
particularly rural towns may have

1229
00:53:55,460 --> 00:53:53,220
limited scripts of a particular time

1230
00:53:57,200 --> 00:53:55,470
sometimes people can be found of a

1231
00:53:58,849 --> 00:53:57,210
medication and wait a day or two to get

1232
00:54:00,769 --> 00:53:58,859
into their GP and then another day or

1233
00:54:01,910 --> 00:54:00,779
two to get it to their chemist you don't

1234
00:54:03,680 --> 00:54:01,920
want to have long gaps in your

1235
00:54:06,710 --> 00:54:03,690
medications you want your illness to be

1236
00:54:08,690 --> 00:54:06,720
treated as optimally as possible so make

1237
00:54:11,720 --> 00:54:08,700
sure that everything is on hand now does

1238
00:54:13,460 --> 00:54:11,730
that mean you buy 20 boxes no please you

1239
00:54:15,019 --> 00:54:13,470
know same as soon as one in 20 packets

1240
00:54:16,670 --> 00:54:15,029
of toilet paper you're not going to need

1241
00:54:19,020 --> 00:54:16,680
that much you just want to do the

1242
00:54:20,910 --> 00:54:19,030
routine things but with a bit more

1243
00:54:22,830 --> 00:54:20,920
here that you would normally do don't

1244
00:54:24,690 --> 00:54:22,840
let yourself run out make sure that

1245
00:54:26,790 --> 00:54:24,700
you've got the next script ahead yeah I

1246
00:54:29,790 --> 00:54:26,800
don't need 20 scripts ahead okay and

1247
00:54:33,690 --> 00:54:29,800
make sure perhaps that you're up to date

1248
00:54:35,340 --> 00:54:33,700
with your vaccinations your adult is a

1249
00:54:38,700 --> 00:54:35,350
nice choice because you don't want to

1250
00:54:41,310 --> 00:54:38,710
get a vaccine preventible disease and

1251
00:54:44,340 --> 00:54:41,320
then be hit with corona virus on top of

1252
00:54:47,130 --> 00:54:44,350
that absolutely I had an email from a

1253
00:54:49,350 --> 00:54:47,140
colleague in Canada just recently and in

1254
00:54:50,850 --> 00:54:49,360
amongst all of the preparations that

1255
00:54:52,580 --> 00:54:50,860
hospitals are doing to try and be ready

1256
00:54:55,410 --> 00:54:52,590
for a potential for owner outbreak

1257
00:54:56,700 --> 00:54:55,420
they've had an outbreak of a variety of

1258
00:54:59,250 --> 00:54:56,710
things you know respiratory syncytial

1259
00:55:00,630 --> 00:54:59,260
virus gastro in July to spawners time

1260
00:55:01,980 --> 00:55:00,640
all of these different illnesses that

1261
00:55:04,260 --> 00:55:01,990
are clocking around and of course in

1262
00:55:07,050 --> 00:55:04,270
amongst at or two different strains of

1263
00:55:09,870 --> 00:55:07,060
flu in their particular community so yes

1264
00:55:12,420 --> 00:55:09,880
please make yourself be protected

1265
00:55:15,480 --> 00:55:12,430
against the things that you can and then

1266
00:55:17,310 --> 00:55:15,490
for the corona virus washing your hands

1267
00:55:18,600 --> 00:55:17,320
really frequently reduces the number of

1268
00:55:21,660 --> 00:55:18,610
times that you're touching your face

1269
00:55:24,270 --> 00:55:21,670
trying to stay a metre to a metre and a

1270
00:55:26,910 --> 00:55:24,280
half away from people who might be

1271
00:55:29,580 --> 00:55:26,920
unwell so that if they do cough it's not

1272
00:55:32,370 --> 00:55:29,590
going to be popping on on vital parts of

1273
00:55:34,980 --> 00:55:32,380
you yes and stay home if you're sick

1274
00:55:37,680 --> 00:55:34,990
don't go to work don't go to school yet

1275
00:55:41,910 --> 00:55:37,690
all very good advice and I think we need

1276
00:55:44,250 --> 00:55:41,920
to wrap it up sue but thank you so much

1277
00:55:45,660 --> 00:55:44,260
I know how busy you are and we really

1278
00:55:48,150 --> 00:55:45,670
appreciate the time that you've spent

1279
00:55:51,690 --> 00:55:48,160
today and I know that the listeners will

1280
00:55:52,590 --> 00:55:51,700
really appreciate it too so maybe we'll

1281
00:55:55,620 --> 00:55:52,600
talk again soon

1282
00:55:59,170 --> 00:55:55,630
and thank you dr. Paige for joining us

1283
00:56:08,370 --> 00:55:59,180
on skeptic zone always a pleasure buddy

1284
00:56:10,900 --> 00:56:08,380
[Music]

1285
00:56:13,120 --> 00:56:10,910
skeptics cafe is held on the third

1286
00:56:15,970 --> 00:56:13,130
Monday of every month at the Dan

1287
00:56:19,150 --> 00:56:15,980
O'Connell Hotel in Melbourne on Monday

1288
00:56:21,940 --> 00:56:19,160
March 16th Chris guest president of the

1289
00:56:24,400 --> 00:56:21,950
Vic skeptics exam is the curious career

1290
00:56:28,299 --> 00:56:24,410
of the acclaimed archaeologist James

1291
00:56:31,059 --> 00:56:28,309
mallet in the middle of the 20th century

1292
00:56:33,490 --> 00:56:31,069
mallet changed our understanding of the

1293
00:56:36,069 --> 00:56:33,500
Neolithic period in Alitalia with

1294
00:56:38,309 --> 00:56:36,079
amazing discoveries at Haj Allah and

1295
00:56:40,269 --> 00:56:38,319
Charlton who yuck

1296
00:56:43,359 --> 00:56:40,279
controversies abounded when he

1297
00:56:46,329 --> 00:56:43,369
documented the direct treasure the baker

1298
00:56:48,700 --> 00:56:46,339
inscription and discovered a continuity

1299
00:56:52,109 --> 00:56:48,710
of fabric designs dating from the

1300
00:56:55,029 --> 00:56:52,119
neolithic era to modern times in Turkey

1301
00:56:58,329 --> 00:56:55,039
for more information see the skeptics

1302
00:57:03,539 --> 00:56:58,339
cafe Facebook page or the Vic skeptics

1303
00:57:05,790 --> 00:57:03,549
website app vic skeptics wordpress.com

1304
00:57:20,019 --> 00:57:05,800
slash events

1305
00:57:24,199 --> 00:57:22,430
thank you for listening to the skeptic

1306
00:57:26,509 --> 00:57:24,209
zone coming up on next week's show part

1307
00:57:27,949 --> 00:57:26,519
two of maynard's night at the Australian

1308
00:57:28,759 --> 00:57:27,959
skeptics dinner meeting all about

1309
00:57:31,219 --> 00:57:28,769
climate change

1310
00:57:33,410 --> 00:57:31,229
Maynard talks to the one and only dick

1311
00:57:36,499 --> 00:57:33,420
Smith one of the founders one of the

1312
00:57:38,239 --> 00:57:36,509
patrons of Australian sceptics and other

1313
00:57:42,019 --> 00:57:38,249
pub goers including our president

1314
00:57:43,959 --> 00:57:42,029
Jessica singer also a story by Michelle

1315
00:57:49,009 --> 00:57:43,969
Franklin in the Northern Territory about

1316
00:57:52,039 --> 00:57:49,019
invasive species centering on horses not

1317
00:57:54,349 --> 00:57:52,049
many people would think about that but

1318
00:57:57,739 --> 00:57:54,359
yes horses in Australia are invasive

1319
00:57:59,870 --> 00:57:57,749
species we have an update from the

1320
00:58:02,839 --> 00:57:59,880
guerrilla skepticism on Wikipedia by

1321
00:58:06,140 --> 00:58:02,849
susan gerbic and also another logical

1322
00:58:08,089 --> 00:58:06,150
fallacy with michelle beakers mark next

1323
00:58:10,519 --> 00:58:08,099
weeks you'll be looking at the straw man

1324
00:58:12,829 --> 00:58:10,529
fallacy there's so much coming up on

1325
00:58:14,569 --> 00:58:12,839
next week's show I better start working

1326
00:58:16,370 --> 00:58:14,579
on it but for this week

1327
00:58:23,239 --> 00:58:16,380
this is Richard Saunders signing off

1328
00:58:25,309 --> 00:58:23,249
from Sydney Australia you've been

1329
00:58:30,769 --> 00:58:25,319
listening to the skeptic zone podcast

1330
00:58:33,799 --> 00:58:30,779
please visit our website at WWDC be for

1331
00:58:36,459 --> 00:58:33,809
show notes contacts and to access the

1332
00:58:39,739 --> 00:58:36,469
bat catalog of episodes going back to

1333
00:58:43,400 --> 00:58:39,749
2008 you can follow the skeptic zone

1334
00:58:45,799 --> 00:58:43,410
podcast on twitter at skeptic zone visit

1335
00:58:49,160 --> 00:58:45,809
our facebook page or leave a review on

1336
00:58:52,519 --> 00:58:49,170
itunes you can also support the skeptic

1337
00:58:54,890 --> 00:58:52,529
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1338
00:58:56,839 --> 00:58:54,900
zone podcast is an independent

1339
00:58:58,999 --> 00:58:56,849
production reviews and opinions

1340
00:59:01,189 --> 00:58:59,009
expressed on the skeptic zone and not

1341
00:59:04,120 --> 00:59:01,199
necessarily those of Australian skeptics